Each year, NAHB International Builders’ Show® (IBS) hosts annual education sessions during Design & Construction Week, covering everything from design trends to market indicators.

We attended the housing and economic outlook session during our trip to Las Vegas last month, and while we left with many valuable insights, one point on the supply side left a strong impression: In 2020, NAHB expects the skilled labor shortage in the U.S. to plateau at around 4%.

It’s a sign of progress for the building, construction, remodeling and apartment development industries as we look ahead to the next 10 or even 20 years. This stabilization can be attributed to proactive efforts across the homebuilding and retail industries, spearheaded by leaders like Lowe’s with their Generation T movement, to support and advocate for trade training and career development.

Good News, but With a Grain of Salt

Worth considering: While the skilled labor shortage is projected to plateau this year, it is still a significant factor that will continue to impact costs, project timelines and quality, with 311,000 open construction positions as of October 2019 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It’s also important to note that this does not represent a true correction, nor does it indicate an emerging trend of reduced labor shortages. While stabilization is a promising sign, we can’t rely on exploding population growth or a rapid influx of new, skilled workers to create sea change overnight. Like a big ship turning back, the skilled labor shortage will take time to reverse.